Security Update

Monday, April 30, 2012

Jerusalem and the Holy Land are at the time of this writing both safe and quiet, and tourism is at an all time high. President Obama recently released funds to the Palestinians that the US government had been holding for several months pending resolution of security/political issues on the West Bank and Gaza, so, at least with regard to the West Bank and Gaza, the US government appears to believe that things are improving a little and not deteriorating.

With regard to areas outside of the Holy Land, the signals are mixed, and it is really unclear what is happening. The US government has increased its military presence in the region. Egypt continues to be unstable and is in the middle of elections for a civilian government. Violence continues in Syria. With regard to Iran, US officials are downplaying the need for an immediate response beyond economic sanctions, with some officials arguing as recently as the end of April that the sanctions appear to be “working”. Within Israel, there has been a debate about the appropriate response to Iran with Prime Minister Netanyahu taking a hawkish position, but with a number of prominent and influential Israelis publically warning as recently as the last week of April that Mr. Netanyahu’s talk about the need for military action is irresponsible and wrongheaded. Mr. Netanyahu and his government get to decide what to do and were Israel to take military action, there wouldn’t be any public announcement until after it was over, but there is no public consensus, demand or pressure in support of a military response within Israel.

Overall, it appears that with the exception of Syria, tensions are actually less than they were earlier this year.